Winter lodging reservations are lagging, but Vail is doing better than other mountain resorts

Despite a strong summer, consumers in 17 mountain resorts including the Vail Valley are holding off, for now, making winter reservations.

According to the latest data from DestiMetrics, the business intelligence division of Inntopia, reservations for November, December and January in the mountain resort region are down 20% from the same period a year ago. Consumers are wary of making big purchase decisions regarding winter travel, at least until the snow flies.

In a telephone interview, Inntopia Senior Vice President for Business Intelligence Tom Foley said while the overall economic picture is “really good,” consumers are still carrying trillions in debt, including more than $1.1 trillion in credit card debt. Since travel reservations are almost all made with credit cards, consumers seem wary about putting more on those cards.

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Consumers, he said, are concerned about debt, job security and income as they make decisions about discretionary spending.

Foley noted that while income has outpaced inflation for the past 17 months, many consumers are still working to catch up with the rush of inflation of the past few years.

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Foley noted that “passionate” bookings, those based on snowfall, aren’t showing up yet in the data.

“We’ll know more when the snow falls,” he said, adding that snow often offsets economic data. “We’ll know more, probably in November,” he added.

No business like snow business

But snow-driven bookings can sometimes be delayed due to warm weather in consumer home bases.

“Backyard snow can almost be better,” Foley said. Longtime veterans of the Colorado ski industry still talk about Denver Broncos’ appearance on Monday Night Football on Oct. 15, 1984. That game, played in a blinding snowstorm, got reservation lines ringing at virtually every resort in the state.

These days, Foley said resorts are in a careful balancing act regarding rates. Last winter, resorts held firm on rates — and revenue suffered.

Foley noted that holding firm on rates needs to come with some sort of incentive, either with snow, or some sort of added value to draw consumers.

Foley noted that Vail has done a good job with rate management over the last couple of years, particularly due to competition from resorts in Summit County.

Locally, the Vail Valley’s early reservations, which represent nearly half of winter’s bookings, were also down through Sept. 30, but not nearly to the extent of the rest of the competitive set.

Vail Valley Partnership President and CEO Chris Romer said those bookings were down just 1% for the first months of winter. And, he added, he’s encouraged for the winter to come, and not just by the prospect of snow.

Romer said he believes added lodging inventory, as well as additional air service from Alaska and Frontier airlines, should drive more visitation. In addition, bringing women’s World Cup ski racing to the Birds of Prey course at Beaver Creek and expanding those events from one to two weeks should drive early season visitation.

“I believe we’ll continue to outperform the market,” Romer said. “We have some good momentum — I really am excited.”