Skier visits down, lift revenue up at Vail Resorts properties for 2024-25 season
It will likely be the 3rd consecutive year in which the company has missed the mid-point of its earnings expectations
Chris Dillmann/Vail Daily
Vail Resorts released a selection of end-of-season metrics for the company’s North American ski areas on Thursday, reporting a 3.1% drop in skier visits and a 3.4% increase in lift ticket revenue compared to the prior year.
Ski school revenue was up 2.7% and dining revenue was up 2.2%, as well, but retail/rental revenue was down 4%, the company reported.
All that will likely result in lower earnings than what the company had hoped for this season, said Vail Resorts CEO Kirsten Lynch.
“As a result of the lower than expected lift ticket visitation in the spring period, the company currently expects resort reported EBITDA for fiscal 2025 to be in the lower half of the guidance range issued on March 10, 2025,” Lynch said.
If that proves to be true, it will be the third consecutive year in which the company has missed the mid-point of its earnings expectations.
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The news came as Vail Resorts stock was trading at about $135 per share, a similar price to the lows the stock saw in 2020 as pandemic fears sent stock prices crashing. But for many on Wall Street, the low stock price reflects an opportunity to invest in Vail Resorts, and the company’s stock closed at about $140 per share on Thursday following the news, up 0.9% on the day. Several analysts issued a buy rating on Vail Resorts stock in the wake of Thursday’s announcement, including Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities and Jeffrey Stantial with Stifel Financial.
Scholes said his company had predicted a heightened risk of Vail Resorts missing its earnings expectations for the 2024-25 season.
“As we also wrote at this same time last year following one of last year’s guide-downs: We note that one of the biggest pushbacks we receive from investors on this company is the repetitive guide-downs and the company’s (in)ability to hit its forecasts,” Scholes wrote in a note to investors, issued Thursday. “Unfortunately, today’s announcement does nothing to alleviate that concern and only worsens it.”
‘The benefit of improved conditions’
The results were calculated through April 20, 2025. Breckenridge ski resort remains open, but is not expected to skew the results.
Lynch said the numbers from the 2024-25 ski season demonstrate the company’s resiliency.
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“As the 2024/2025 North American winter season nears completion, our overall results highlight the stability provided by our season pass program, our investments in the guest experience, and the strong execution of our teams across all of our mountain resorts,” Lynch said. “Season-to-date visitation across the Company’s 37 North American mountain resorts reflects the benefit of improved conditions, offset by the expected continued industry demand normalization.”
While destination visitation among pre-committed passholder guests improved as expected in March and April, visitation from lift ticket guests was below expectations, Lynch said.
“Although visitation declined, lift revenue increased compared to the prior year period, driven by the growth in season pass revenue committed ahead of the season,” Lynch said. “Ancillary spend per destination guest visit showed continued strength across our ski school and dining businesses, while overall revenue growth in our ancillary businesses was impacted by the lower mix of destination visitation.”
Turning to 2025-26
Pre-purchased pass sales were down slightly for 2024-25 — Vail Resorts’ first ever dip in sales since introducing the Epic Pass in 2008 — and about even with 2023-24.
Scholes said the company had expressed optimism regarding its efforts to return to year-over-year growth in pass sales during a meeting he had with management in March.
“At that time management believed this season’s generally good ski conditions for their resorts (implying decent snowfall/weather and excluding the labor issue at Park City) should be a tailwind for skiers to want to purchase a pass for the 2025/2026 season,” Scholes wrote.
Lynch said when the 2025-26 season pass sales window hit its first deadline on April 13, it came amid significant macroeconomic volatility.
“It is currently unknown what, if any, impact that had on early pass decision making,” Lynch said. “Pass product units were down slightly, while sales dollars grew versus prior year through the April sales deadline, and renewals among our most loyal, tenured pass holders were up significantly from the prior period. The April sales deadline only impacts a portion of our pass holders that are eligible for buddy ticket benefits. We will have more to share in our third quarter earnings release in June 2025.”
