Snowfall in March has helped decrease the likelihood of drought developing this spring in Colorado’s northwest mountains. However, a warm and dry spring could still change the tide heading into summer. 

The National Weather Service, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, released its latest seasonal drought outlook on Thursday, March 20. It showed that drought conditions are unlikely to develop in most of northwest Colorado through June.

This represents a shift from the agency’s Feb. 28 outlook, which indicated drought development was likely in the region this spring.  

Brad Pugh, a forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate prediction center, said these outlooks predominantly take into account the current conditions, climatology temperature and precipitation outlooks over the next three months. 

“In northwestern Colorado at this time of year, you know going into the springtime, mountain snowpack is a critical factor,” Pugh said.

Support Local Journalism

Donate

The current snowpack as well as a lack of drought conditions in the area led to conditions shifting from the drought development that was reported in the previous seasonal outlook, Pugh added.  

As of March 18, much of northwest Colorado was in line with, or just above, normal snowpack. This has continued to improve in the state’s north-central mountains since January. 

According to OpenSnow, as of Monday the snow totals and percentage of normal on the season so far were as follows:  

• Winter Park – 315 inches (117%) 
• Copper Mountain Resort – 303 inches (113%) 
• Vail Mountain – 292 inches (101%) 
• Breckenridge Ski Resort – 284 inches (107%) 
• Steamboat Resort – 279 inches (108%) 
• Aspen Highlands — 267 inches (88%) 
• Loveland Ski Area – 261 inches (108%)
• Snowmass – 243 inches (83%) 
• Keystone Resort – 239 inches (107%) 
• Beaver Creek – 227 inches (108%)
• Arapahoe Basin Ski Area – 225 inches (112%)
• Aspen Mountain – 210 inches (92%) 
• Ski Cooper – 206 inches (106%)
• Buttermilk – 147 inches (89%)

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Colorado reported no drought in many of the northwest counties including Summit, Grand, Routt and Jackson counties as well as the eastern reaches of Eagle and Moffat counties. Heading west, the monitor shows abnormally dry conditions in Pitkin County and the eastern portions of Garfield and Rio Blanco counties. Conditions continue to get progressively drier the further west toward the border.

Colorado has been under a La Nina advisory since December — typically bringing wet, cold weather in the north and drier, warmer weather in the south. While La Nina years can experience drier springs, the advisory is coming to a close, Pugh said.

“When you head later into the spring and summer, (La Nina’s) influence begins to wane,” he said. “La Nina is forecasted to weaken and transition to neutral conditions over the next one or two months, so it wasn’t really a major factor in this seasonal drought outlook.”

While Pugh’s seasonal outlook does not forecast drought development in northwestern Colorado due to “conditions being pretty close to average,” warmer and drier conditions are expected in the next three months.

“The April, May, June outlook does favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation over northwestern Colorado,” Pugh said. “So I could see later in the spring into the early summer conditions beginning to dry out, but I’m not sure we’ll meet that drought threshold by the end of June.”

The National Weather Service’s short-term outlook through April 6 predicts near-normal precipitation for much of northwest Colorado with higher-than-normal temperatures. 

“There are indications that through the remainder of March into the beginning of April, you could still see some periods of beneficial snowfall, which could help as well,” Pugh added. 

Still, multi-week periods of warm temperatures and little to no precipitation can rapidly drive conditions toward drought, Pugh said. 

While northwest Colorado is less vulnerable to this type of rapid shift, southern Colorado is in another situation, he added.

“That part of the state is much more vulnerable to rapidly developing drought if there are any episodes of heat, little rainfall, high winds, dust storms, all that kind of stuff,” Pugh said. 

Colorado’s Western Slope has seen a north-south divide in terms of snowpack and drought conditions this winter. In much of the southern region, current outlooks show that drought exists or is likely to develop.